Detroit Lions Lose in Overtime

Should the Lions have gone for the first down last week?  Trailing by three, the Lions opted not to send out Jason Hanson to tie the game with a chip shot field goal, instead opting to use a quarterback sneak for one yard.  Of course this didn't work and they lost.  It was ultimately the wrong decision as they lost, but what does the math say?

Based on my research, using the book, Scorecasting, which borrows data from a 2005 study of the NFL among other places, the answer is YES the Lions were right is attempting to gain a single yard.  "Regardless of field position, on anything less that fourth and five, teams are always better off going for it." (pg.36)

Another study analyzed 1068 fourth down attempts.  The NFL teams punted 959 times.  Which means 90% of the time they are giving the ball back to the other team with no chance to score points. 

Ultimately it looks like Jim Shwartz went against the math opting not wanting to put his tired defense back on the field.  There's always next week!

While I'm here, I can't help but put in a plug for the book.  If you love sports and like (even if you don't love) math, this is a book you have to read.